Chances are Danny and Wavel cannot win in the first round IN COMES THE THIRD FORCE
Given recent trends in the last elections, chances are neither Danny nor Wavel will win in the first round of the October (22nd –24th) Presidential elections that may yet deliver some surprises.
For there will be the presence of a THIRD FORCE, and in 2020 the electorate is more mature and aware than ever before.
We saw hints of this change in the attitude of the voters in the last elections in the first and second round of the 2015 presidential election, and also in the National Assembly election in 2016 -two elections that were held almost twelve months apart.
The PL presidential candidate won in the second round by only 193 votes and twelve months down the line LDS won the National Assembly election by 15 seats to PL’s 10 seats, in a first pass the post system.
However, they were separated by only 226 votes. President James Michel resigned his position following the National Assembly elections defeat and the presidency was taken over by the then vice-president, on the insistence of former President France Albert Rene, who had wanted to see Danny Faure as the head of state before exiting this life… and thus got his wish. Danny took over in turbulent times politically without a majority in the National Assembly to push through his agenda.
He moved quickly to establish communications with the Leader of the Opposition behind the scene and provided Wavel with what he wanted, which made the LOTO say one thing for public consumption and do another to fulfil his commitment to Danny.
Danny had agreed not to dissolve the National Assembly and Wavel agreed to allow him to serve out his mandate; Patrick Pillay was thrown under the bus not knowing the deal between the two men. There are two obvious recent occurrences which prove clearly that Wavel is in cahoots with Danny Faure behind the scenes.
1. The Budget amendment for 1.2 billion rupees, which Ramkalawan disputed on the outset and everyone knows exactly what took place seven days later.
2. And the other is the controversial fisheries agreement with the EU, which LDS objected aggressively, but in the end they ratified the agreement even if it is not in our best interests.
During the course of the last four years the LDS tyrant also succeeded to influence several key appointments such as the Attorney General, Commissioner of Police, CEO of ACCS, Mayor of Victoria and a few more. Wavel had become comfortable with the idea that he could do business with Danny on the quiet. Notice that when Ton Pat went to the Clock Tower calling for fresh presidential elections, both Wavel and Mancienne, LDS chairman, backed out. They said that it was only fair to allow Danny to complete his mandate. Meanwhile Mancienne is enjoying a hefty pension from the Seychelles Pension Fund, which they needed Danny to remain silent over for obvious reasons.
MAJOR CRACKS
However, major cracks were beginning to appear in the LDS setup, with the departure of Patrick Pillay leaving the alliance of partiesthat formed the LDS. Alexia Amesbury also departed followed by Philip Boulle not long after; leaving Wavel as the sole survivor of the alliance of parties which fought the parliamentary elections in 2016.
It has to be remembered that Wavel came into this alliance with 35%, which means that he is 15% + one vote short to win the next presidential election. The fanatical support of the SNP would like to think that the exit of Pillay, Amesbury and Boulle have not drained any support away from the LDS party. But they are wrong, very wrong! In fact, Wavel have been very successful in committing political suicide in the four years that he has been heading the majority party in the National Assembly. This will cause him to struggle in the first round of the forthcoming presidential election. Danny Faure is untried and untested at the polls and it is the first time that the SPUP, SPPF, PL and US will be coming from behind going into a major election since the re-introduction (1993) of multi-party elections in Seychelles.
The formation of One Seychelles and the participation of Patrick Pillay and others will further exacerbate the situation for both Danny and Ramkalawan. And a very large number of voters are now saying they will not be voting in October, on the basis that they are not happy with the performances of both Danny and Wavel in the last four years. If the third force, which is a combination of everyone who is not Danny or Wavel could unite, they stand a good chance of reaching the second round and eventually winning the next presidential election.
As we say in publishing, WATCH this space!
